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Question One: What is the average price of diesel in Victoria today?
As of today (late March 2026), diesel prices in Victoria—especially around Melbourne—are unusually high and volatile.
💰 Current average (best estimate today)
- Around $2.90 – $3.10 per litre across Victoria
- Many Melbourne stations are at or above $3.00/L, with some reported over $3.10/L
📊 Context (why it’s high)
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Just a couple of weeks ago, averages were closer to:
- ~$2.55/L in Melbourne
- ~$1.94/L statewide average (week ending early March)
- Prices have since surged rapidly due to supply issues and global factors, pushing diesel to ~$3.00/L nationally in some areas.
🔮 14-day diesel price forecast (Victoria)
📊 Most likely range (early April 2026)
- $3.00 – $3.30 per litre
📈 Scenario breakdown
- Best case (stabilisation): ~$2.80 – $3.00/L
- Most likely: ~$3.00 – $3.30/L
- Worst case (shortage spike): $3.30 – $3.60+/L
🧠 Why this is the most likely outcome
1. Global oil prices are still elevated
- Oil is expected to average ~US$110/barrel in March–April due to conflict risk
- Higher oil = higher diesel (diesel closely tracks crude)
2. Australia is in a supply crunch
- Fuel shipments into Australia have dropped sharply
- Some service stations are already running out of diesel
➡️ That creates upward pressure on prices in the short term
3. Prices have been rising extremely fast
- Diesel jumped ~50% in early March at wholesale level
- National diesel already hit ~300 cents ($3.00/L) in some areas
➡️ Rapid spikes like this usually don’t reverse within 2 weeks
4. Short-term outlook: volatility, not relief
- Experts say fuel pain may last “a few more weeks” before easing
- Supply fixes (like US shipments) are coming—but not instantly
When diesel is pushing ~$3.00/L, the goal isn’t just “use less fuel”—it’s buy smarter, drive smarter, and plan smarter. Here’s what actually makes a noticeable difference:
⛽ 1. Be strategic about where you fill up
- Use apps like PetrolSpy or Fuel Map Australia
- Price differences between nearby stations can be 20–50 cents per litre right now
- Independent stations are often cheaper than big brands during spikes
👉 This alone can save $10–$30 per tank
⏰ 2. Time your fill-ups (less obvious, but important)
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Diesel doesn’t follow petrol cycles exactly, but:
- Prices often jump after supply news or shortages
- Prices can dip slightly mid-week or after deliveries
👉 If prices are rising fast, fill sooner rather than later
🚗 3. Adjust how you drive (big impact over time)
Small changes = real savings:
- Smooth acceleration (avoid heavy throttle)
- Keep speed steady (especially on highways)
- Use cruise control where possible
- Avoid excessive idling
👉 Aggressive driving can increase fuel use by 10–30%
🛠️ 4. Keep your vehicle efficient
- Correct tyre pressure = up to 3% fuel savings
- Clean air filter improves combustion
- Regular servicing keeps injectors efficient (critical for diesel engines)
⚖️ 5. Reduce weight and drag
- Remove unused roof racks or heavy gear
- Don’t carry tools/equipment you don’t need daily
👉 Extra weight = more fuel burned, especially in city driving
🧭 6. Combine trips and plan routes
- Avoid short, cold-start trips (diesels are less efficient when cold)
- Combine errands into one run
- Use navigation to avoid stop-start traffic
💳 7. Use discounts and loyalty programs
- Supermarket fuel dockets (4–10 cents off)
- Some cards and apps offer cashback on fuel
- Fleet or business drivers: check for bulk or commercial rates
🔄 8. Consider short-term alternatives
If prices stay extreme:
- Carpool where possible
- Use public transport for commute days
- Work from home (even 1–2 days/week helps)
⚠️ What NOT to do
- Don’t “panic fill” constantly—just be strategic
- Don’t run your tank extremely low during shortages
- Avoid cheap, poor-quality fuel from unknown sources (can cost more in repairs)